NOAA Predicts Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
For the seventh season in a row, forecasts at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are predicting an above average Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above average season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
It’s important to note that NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
Below is a list of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tropical Cyclone names. Graphic via NOAA.